WASHINGTON — The Bush administration, which returns to Middle East peacemaking with the arrival of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Jerusalem today, plans to take an initially low-key approach that would rely much more on nations in the region carrying the public diplomatic burden, U.S. officials say.
Rice and President Bush have promised a higher level of engagement in the peace process in the aftermath of the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. But, at first, much of the U.S. effort will be symbolic or monetary — Rice will announce the release of $41 million in previously allocated funds to assist the Palestinian economy — as the administration waits to see whether the Israelis and Palestinians can build trust among themselves. Rice, for instance, will not attend the summit in Egypt on Tuesday between Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
The United States also will press Arab nations to step up financial support for Palestinian reform. Despite soaring oil prices, all but three nations in the Arab League have failed to make promised payments to the Palestinians, leaving $400 million uncollected, money administration officials believe can be used to help relieve Palestinian poverty and persuade militia members to retire.
Administration officials say they recognize the opportunity created by Arafat's death and the strong desire by European allies that the United States play a more active role. But Bush administration officials also are disdainful of the Clinton administration's deep involvement in the peace process, which they believe amounted to micromanaging.
Rice has rejected the idea of creating a high-powered negotiator, similar to Dennis Ross in the Clinton years, though she may establish an office within the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs to monitor events. A special envoy is a "tactical question" that is not called for at this point, a senior administration official said yesterday.
"When you are trying to build the institutions of a Palestinian state, it does not call for the front-page diplomacy of the sort we saw in the 1990s," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivities and to not upstage Rice's trip. "Everyone will understand the United States is in the leading role, but if you are not involved in it you won't see it on the front page every day."
Progress to be slow
Rice, as she flew to London Thursday on the first leg of her weeklong trip to Europe and the Middle East, cautioned reporters not to get "in the habit of looking for the flash breakthrough."
Israeli officials support the U.S. approach, believing high-stakes meetings and summits make the process more complicated and can lead to grandstanding. "The United States cannot replace the parties," Israeli Ambassador Danny Ayalon said. "Real progress follows after the parties take the necessary steps."
But Palestinians and Europeans have argued for a deeper U.S. role, saying that only sustained high-level involvement will ensure talks between the parties do not go off the rails.
"Right now we don't trust each other," said Ghaith Omari, political adviser to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. "They will not believe us; we will not believe them. We need a third party, an objective third party that can actually help us move forward, that can come when we have the inevitable disagreements, inevitable frictions that will happen, especially at the beginning."
Administration officials say such pleas are diplomatic code for the United States putting pressure on Israel. "Everyone is looking for the United States to go back to our traditional role of delivering the Israelis," another administration official said.
U.S. officials say such pressure will only fail, especially because Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in difficult political straits. In the coming weeks, Sharon faces rebellion from right-wing members in his coalition over his plan to withdraw Jewish settlers from Gaza and four locations in the West Bank and from left-wing members over his budget, which could bring down his government and force new elections.
Breaking up militants
A key sticking point between Palestinians and Israelis is whether Abbas can begin to dismantle militant groups. Abbas, under political pressure because one group, Hamas, swept recent elections in Gaza, is attempting to negotiate a lasting cease-fire. But Israelis say broader peace talks cannot take place until Abbas moves against militant groups.
Palestinians also are demanding that Israelis begin to live up to their commitments in the dormant "road map" peace plan, including a freeze on settlement growth in the territories Palestinians consider theirs, for a proposed independent state. Israeli officials say they have reached an unannounced understanding with the Americans that would allow for settlement growth within existing construction lines. A U.S. official confirmed the administration is more concerned about "outward physical expansion" of settlements.
Throughout Bush's first term, the United States and Israel closely coordinated policies, often through White House channels that bypassed the State Department. Israeli officials, for instance, provided substantial input on Bush's June 24, 2002, speech in which he cut off relations with Arafat and demanded the Palestinians replace him. Rice, as national security adviser, met frequently with Sharon's chief of staff, Dov Weisglass.
Now, with Rice at the State Department, many expect her central role to continue. Her chief aide on Middle East issues, Elliott Abrams, will remain at the National Security Council but also will continue to work closely with Rice. Abrams will be in Israel during her visit.
Prisoner release
Last week, Weisglass met with Rice at the State Department to detail a list of actions Sharon was prepared to take to advance the peace process, including releasing up to 900 prisoners, pulling Israeli defense forces out of five major West Bank cities, opening a seaport in Gaza, suspending military operations against militant groups and instituting a moratorium on targeted killings of militants.
Israeli officials also came to Washington with detailed maps of the security barrier being built around the West Bank and briefing books on high-tech border crossings being constructed to speed the passage of Palestinian goods and people through security checkpoints.
The Israeli government has sought financial assistance from the United States for building the transit terminals. A White House official said $50 million of the $350 million that Bush announced in his State of the Union address to "support Palestinian political, economic, and security reforms" could be given to Israel for the terminals because faster passage through Israeli checkpoints is presumed to be a help to the Palestinian economy.
The Palestinians currently receive about $75 million a year. That amount will be doubled in Bush's 2006 budget to be announced tomorrow. Bush will also seek $150 million for projects in Palestinian areas in a supplemental 2005 budget request.
Previous allocation
The $41 million that Rice will announce tomorrow comes from a separate pot of money — a backlog of unspent funds previously allocated to the Palestinians — that is intended to improve living conditions in Gaza.
Some administration officials have been wary about getting too closely involved in the retraining of Palestinian security forces because some believe Palestinians who received U.S. training and equipment during the Clinton administration took those skills and conducted attacks against Israelis. But the road-map plan calls for the United States to take the lead coordinating role. In London Rice said the "United States is prepared to play a major role" in retraining Palestinian forces.
U.S. officials have discussed reestablishing the "trilateral mechanism," a coordinating group made up of the CIA and Israeli and Palestinian security services that began informally in the 1990s over dinners at the home of the CIA station chief in Israel.
The United States, along with Britain, also plans a major push to have Arab nations provide funds to support the Palestinians. Only Algeria, Libya and Saudi Arabia have fully paid up, with Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates especially behind in support.
National Security Council officials suggest a plan to use the untapped $400 million to provide $100-a-month stipends to impoverished Palestinians, in part to combat the appeal of Hamas, which has an effective social-service system. The money would also be used to create a retirement fund for militia members.