Originally published February 7, 2012 at 10:01 PM | Page modified February 7, 2012 at 11:45 PM
Which Pac-12 teams have made the best case for NCAA tournament?
Could this be a year that only one Pac-12 team is invited to the NCAA tournament? Or a year that the regular-season champion doesn't go? It's been a strange season, that's for sure.
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Seattle Times colleges reporter
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It's been that kind of season in Pac-12 basketball. You can almost envision, oh, about Friday, March 9, an NCAA selection committeeman riffling through papers in an Indianapolis hotel meeting room and going, "Hey, Doris. Pull up the Pac-12 data sheets. Somebody must have mixed this stuff up with the Southland Conference."
But the committee will assess the league, pound the figurative gavel and issue a judgment, because it has to. I'm guessing the league gets two teams into the NCAA tournament, but I wouldn't rule out just one making it. Yes, it could get three, but it's going to take the right set of circumstances.
Craig Robinson outlined those Tuesday on the league's weekly conference call: Team A wins the regular season, Team B wins the conference tournament, and Team C finishes well, gets to the league final and scrapes in past the committee's penetrating eye.
A reader scoffed recently at my take that the Pac-12 might get only one, reasoning that a team with such-and-such conference record has never failed to make it. The easy answer is, this is a year like no other, one with three Pac-12 teams owning sub-200 computer ratings.
But let's get specific with the top five teams, as the committee will. It breaks down each school's resume into quadrants of how it fared against the RPI computer's top 50, 51-100, 101-200 and 201 and below. While a lot of people fret about their favorite team's RPI, what really matters is its record against those quadrants (the RPI number reflects that record). The data is derived from Monday's RPIratings.com site.
Washington (16-7, 9-2): 1-50: 0-4. 51-100: 3-3. 101-200: 6-0. Sub 200: 7-0. It's not the thickest resume, with a 3-7 record against the top 100, but it helps that the Huskies don't have a bad loss. They'd love to have hung on against either Nevada or Marquette. Nonetheless, I think even a split in Oregon this week is a net positive, and a sweep would be monumental. Getting swept is a no-no, even if the Huskies retain a piece of the Pac-12 lead.
California (18-6, 8-3): 1-50: 0-3. 51-100: 6-1. 101-200: 4-2. Sub 200: 8-0. This is the best body of work in the league, as, among the top five teams in the conference, only Arizona comes within two of Cal's six top-100 wins. Big games Saturday at UCLA and Feb. 16 against Oregon.
Colorado (16-7, 8-3): 1-50: 0-3. 51-100: 3-3. 101-200: 6-1. Sub 200: 5-0. Some top-end chops would be a big boost to a team that played two non-Division I programs. Thursday night's game at Arizona represents an opportunity.
Oregon (16-7, 7-4): 1-50: 0-4. 51-100: 2-2. 101-200: 6-1. Sub 200: 8-0. Not enough punch yet, but Ducks have chances, starting with Washington. Of the five teams considered here, the Ducks have the lowest strength-of-schedule rank (106). They might rue the three-game crème fraiche frolic (actually, they called it the Global Sports Hoops Showcase) in Eugene just before Christmas, when they beat up on North Carolina-Central (276), Prairie View A&M (287) and Stephen F. Austin (280). Those are net blemishes.
Arizona (16-8, 7-4): 1-50: 1-4. 51-100: 3-3. 101-200: 6-1. Sub 200: 6-0. The win at Cal is the league's best road victory. For those focused on the league race, four of UA's last seven games are against Utah, WSU, USC and Arizona State. But those aren't exactly resume-builders.
Which leads us to the most provocative question: How much clout does the regular-season champion carry?
Let's say, for example, the leaders continue to bruise each other down the stretch, Cal finishes a game back of the winner and a third team wins the conference tournament. Meanwhile, the NCAA bubble tightens.
Is there a circumstance in which that regular-season champ gets jilted? You wouldn't think so. But you wouldn't think we'd ever see a league quite like this, either.
Bud Withers: 206-464-8281 or bwithers@seattletimes.com

Bud Withers gives his take on college sports, with the latest from the Huskies, Cougs, and the rest of the Pac-12.
bwithers@seattletimes.com | 206-464-8281

